Guilt is a powerful emotion and leads to behaviours which are sometimes quite irrational and extreme. I was once told that many of the psychiatric wards would be deserted if we could solve the problem of guilt. One of the biggest problems is that those who feel guilty often do not know that that is what is driving them and even when they do they are unaware of what is causing that guilt. It is often for things for which they had no control. Some instances are abusive parents or a parental relationship break down. The list is endless.
But collective guilt…how do you deal with that. The Japanese psyche is still sufering in many respects from WW II and it drives many of their policies. The US is suffering at the moment with the debacle in Iraq and whatever your politics it is not looking good.
What do we as Australians have to be guilty about?
Let me first talk a bit about motivation. I was listening to a discussion on the radio about climate change and the person being interviewed said that the problem was that we were being intellectually engaged but not emotionally engaged. Most of us accept that there is some degree of climate change but very few of us are actually engaged enough to actually care. This was, he explained, because the scientists had intellectually engaged us but it was our emotions that actually motivated us. We needed to be emotionally engaged before we would take substantial steps to react to the problem.
Now with all of this in mind I was asking myself why it was that Australia was on the verge of changing governments? This is counter intuitive. It is almost unheard of that in a time of stability with all the indicators looking positive that a country changes government. Inflation is relatively low, interest rates are resonable, employment s high, peoples quality of life is high, current accounts deficit is not unreasonable – a little high but manageable, and a significant budget surplus. We are relatively safe and except for severe environmental conditions – for which we do not blame the government – we are very well off. It makes no sense whatsoever that the government should be so far behind in the polls – and has been since the new opposition leader was elected.
There is only one reason that this could be the case. We are suffering from guilt. There are three significant issues that are playing out in this campaign but only one of them has been mentioned and then not in a way that would engage us. They are immigration, Iraq and industrial relations.
There are very few people in our community that are comforted by the thought that children may be suffering in detention camps for refugees, let alone all the other problems that have been highlighted. The death of people who were repatriated, the psychological damage done to people who after years of detention were finally accepted as refugees. The illegal detention of Australian citizens. The detention and deportation of people for trivial reasons and for bureaucratic reasons. Whatever you think of detention centers the unfortunate cases that have made the headlines are disturbing.
Whatever the initial reasons for the Iraq invasion where the situation there by any standards is not ideal. Also our association with a country that champions itself as a bastion of democracy on the one hand and is associated with illegal rendition and torture on the other does not always engender a good feeling about that relationship. We are at that point now where the allies do not wish to stay but we know that the situation will descend into total chaos if they leave.
Work choices has been championed by the right as a utopia of industrial relations and condemned by the left as a complete negation of workers rights. The truth is probably at the mid way point but three is a sneaking suspicion in many peoples minds that we may have somehow betrayed the working class without really understanding how. You hear anecdotal stories of abuse but nothing substantial. You see some evidence of people being taken advantage of but it is all quite nebulous. You feel as if you should feel guilty about allowing it to happen but you are not really sure why. Is this because the right have so skillfully manipulated the legislation that you don’t really understand it. Or maybe the left have misrepresented the situation so that it really clouds the good it has done. In any case it ads to the guilt we thing we should feel – even if it does not directly contribute towards it.
So let us assume for a moment that I am right and that one or more of these issues makes us feel uncomfortable with who we are. This creates in us a very subtle cognitive dissonance in that we like to think we are caring and generous people but our government has created these situations for which we feel a portion of blame and so bear a degree of guilt. It is so subtle that we do not realise we feel this guilt. How do we express that guilt without admitting it? Well first of all we find excuses for abandoning our current Prime Minister. We like Rudd. We think it is time for a change. He is not as bad as the last few Labour leaders. He is a moderate and will probably do a good job. Liberal has been in for long enough. Give the other guy a go. All of these reasons sound rather pathetic and are not substantive in any way but we can convince ourselves that this is the reason that we are going to vote Labour.
What of the three issues I mentioned above. Neither party has gotten a real grip on IR. They have really pussy footed around it until it has just petered out. The Opposition do not want to go in too hard since in reality they are in favour of most of the changes – whatever they say – and all they are going to do is “fine tune” it. So to come in too hard will seem a little like rotten eggs. The Coalition is not going to strongly campain on it since it touches a raw nerve with too many people and for every one they convince that the IR changes are beneficial another person feels somehow betrayed – without really knowing why.
Immigration has been studiously ignored during the whole election campaign. One reason is that the policies of both Labour and Liberal are so close that they are almost indistinguishable and again for every vote gained one is lost. It is like opening a raw wound – they really do not want to go there.
So the bottom line is neither party has had the courage to address this collective guilt because to do so would highlight it and thus make them the object of this guilt. Guilt can have unpredictable results when poked and prodded.
So, In my opinion the reason for the swing is quite irrational and as such is likely to produce an unpredictable outcome. However I believe that the guilt which we suffer will only be assuaged with a change of government and we will all wake up Sunday morning to the news that Labour has a small but significant majority and a new era of Labour reign will be ushered in.